Market Light Weekly Update August 1st, 2017: The Answer is 141

John Dupriest Market Light, Uncategorized

The answer is 141. The question is, “How many years ago did Colorado become a state?”August 1st marks Colorado’s birthday. If you have not seen the handmade 1877 United States flag in our conference room – the first in the series of flags to register Colorado’s star –  it is worth visiting (technically, stars are not assigned to specific states). A few salient facts about our beloved state: Colorado is the only state with all borders of straight lines; it touches more other states than any other (7); of all the area in the US above 10,000 ft, Colorado lays claim to 75% of it; it has more 14,000 peaks than any other (53) and 1,000 peaks of 10,000 ft or more; seven major rivers originate in Colorado, more than any other state; its nickname is The Centennial State because it joined the Union 100 years after the adoption of the Declaration of Indpendence. The highest temperature ever recorded in the state was 118 in 1888 (I remember it well!), and the lowest -61 in 1985. I can’t confirm this, but my guess is but the 179 degree difference is probably the biggest of anywhere in the country.


The Market continues to swing close to its high point if measured by the Dow. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are off their highs, but not by huge numbers. One has to wonder, however, with the divergence in price movement among the three big indexes if a peak is forming. Economic signals remain mixed, with automobile sales stalling; GM met with the UAW days back to discuss the possibility of long term decline in automobile purchases and usage. Consumer spending lost some momentum, too. On the other hand, wage growth picked up. Sustained pay gains, along with steady hiring, healthier finances and low inflation, could encourage Americans to accelerate their spending. Manufacturing in the US continues to keep its head above water, with June’s ISM index reporting the second highest since 2011. Good job – “Can we build it? Yes we can!”


The Market Light remains Green, with the major indicators we use in computation all being strong. Those will stay in place until they don’t. Leading sector strength includes Rare Earth Metals (REMX), Coal (KOL), Brazil (EWZ), Latin America (ILF), and China/India FNI). Weak relative strength reported in with US Natural Gas (UNG), Oil & Gas Services (XES), Livestock (COW), and Germany (EWG). Oil has seen some energy of late as well; DBO (a crude oil ETF) had has a significant move in recent days.


The Technical Tea Leaves have brewed a strong potion this week:  The advance/decline oscillator has turned positive when the up/down volume oscillator and the exponentially smoothed advance/decline line are already positive.  In this market, this is viewed as a bullish signal that could precede an upward price movement.


The advance/decline oscillator has turned positive with volume accumulation already positive.  In this strong upward market this is taken as a bullish signal that prices could continue the upward movement from this point.


The new high/new low indicator has reversed to the upside.  This is a reliable bullish signal that is often followed by an upward movement in prices. In this strong market prices could continue in this direction.